There’s never been a truer statement regarding forecasting mortgage rates than the one offered last year by Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:
“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is: Don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”
Coming into this year, most experts projected mortgage rates would gradually increase and end 2022 in the high three-percent range. It’s only April, and rates have already blown past those numbers. Freddie Mac announced last week that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is already at 4.72%.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, tweeted on March 31:
“Continuing on the recent trajectory, would have mortgage rates hitting 5% within a matter of weeks. . . .”
Just five days later, on April 5, the Mortgage News Daily quoted a rate of 5.02%.
No one knows how swiftly mortgage rates will rise moving forward. However, at least to this point, they haven’t significantly impacted purchaser demand. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:
“Mortgage rates jumped much quicker and much higher than even the most aggressive forecasts called for at the end of last year, and yet housing demand appears to be holding steady.”
Through February, home prices, the number of showings, and the number of homes receiving multiple offers all saw a substantial increase. However, much of the spike in mortgage rates occurred in March. We will not know the true impact of the increase in mortgage rates until the March housing numbers become available in early May.
Rick Sharga, EVP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Data, recently put rising rates into context:
“Historically low mortgage rates and higher wages helped offset rising home prices over the past few years, but as home prices continue to soar and interest rates approach five percent on a 30-year fixed rate loan, more consumers are going to struggle to find a property they can comfortably afford.”
While no one knows exactly where rates are headed, experts do think they’ll continue to rise in the months ahead. In the meantime, if you’re looking to buy a home, know that rising rates do have an impact. As rates rise, it’ll cost you more when you purchase a house. If you’re ready to buy, it may make sense to do so sooner rather than later.
Mark Fleming got it right. Forecasting mortgage rates is an impossible task. However, it’s probably safe to assume the days of attaining a 3% mortgage rate are over. The question is whether that will soon be true for 4% rates as well.
Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.
Countless people have set out on the exciting journey of homeownership. Ask around and you’ll find the vast majority are thankful they took the leap and bought a home.… Read more
The median single-family home price rose 14% over the past three months. Condo prices have trended horizontally throughout 2023. Minor price changes are typical in the… Read more
The median single-family home and condo prices declined in the East Bay month over month. Year over year, prices in Alameda increased 2% for single-family homes and 1%… Read more
Looking forward, experts project home prices will continue to rise next year, but not quite as much as they did this year. Even though the expected rise in 2024 isn't … Read more
For more than 79 years, Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans have helped millions of veterans buy their own homes. If you or someone you care about has served in the milit… Read more
Are you dreaming of buying your own home and wondering about how you’ll save for a down payment? You're not alone. Some people think about tapping into their 401(k) sa… Read more
ADUs allow loved ones to live together while having separate spaces. That means you can enjoy each other’s company and help each other out with things like childcare, … Read more
Overall, median prices have trended horizontally over the past 12 months. Considering the rapidly rising interest rates, homes have maintained their value well. Active… Read more
Year over year, single-family home and condo prices were up across the East Bay. Contra Costa condo prices rose most significantly, up 18% since last September. We exp… Read more
You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.