Have Home Values Hit Bottom?

Have Home Values Hit Bottom?

Whether you’re already a homeowner or you’re looking to become one, the recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that’s raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.

 

One of the questions that’s on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters aren’t calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the latest data, there’s a case to be made that the biggest portion of month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already be behind us – and even those numbers weren’t significant declines on the national level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values hit bottom?

Let’s take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):

Have Home Values Hit Bottom? | MyKCM

The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic. It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have yet to come out.

Let’s focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are the change in home values over the last four months that have been published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.

While that doesn’t guarantee home price depreciation has hit bottom, it confirms prices aren’t in a free fall, and it may be an early signal that the worst is already behind us. As the numbers for November and December are released, data will be able to further validate this national trend.

Bottom Line

Home prices month-over-month have depreciated for the past four months on record, but there’s a strong case to be made that the worst may be behind us. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local market, let’s connect.


Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

The Latest 2024 Housing Market Forecast

Looking forward, experts project home prices will continue to rise next year, but not quite as much as they did this year. Even though the expected rise in 2024 isn't … Read more

How VA Loans Can Help Make Homeownership Dreams Come True

For more than 79 years, Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans have helped millions of veterans buy their own homes. If you or someone you care about has served in the milit… Read more

Thinking About Using Your 401(k) To Buy a Home?

Are you dreaming of buying your own home and wondering about how you’ll save for a down payment? You're not alone. Some people think about tapping into their 401(k) sa… Read more

What Are Accessory Dwelling Units and How Can They Benefit You?

ADUs allow loved ones to live together while having separate spaces. That means you can enjoy each other’s company and help each other out with things like childcare, … Read more

San Francisco Market Update - October 2023

Overall, median prices have trended horizontally over the past 12 months. Considering the rapidly rising interest rates, homes have maintained their value well. Active… Read more

East Bay Market Update - October 2023

Year over year, single-family home and condo prices were up across the East Bay. Contra Costa condo prices rose most significantly, up 18% since last September. We exp… Read more

Why Home Prices Keep Going Up

Even though higher mortgage rates cause buyer demand to moderate, they also cause the supply of available homes to go down. That’s because of the mortgage rate lock-in… Read more

Invest in Yourself by Owning a Home

In the end, it all boils down to this: your housing payments are an investment, and you've got a choice to make. Do you want to invest in yourself or your landlord?

The Risks of Selling Your House on Your Own

Are you thinking about selling your house as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO)? If so, know there's a whole lot more time and expertise needed in that process than you might … Read more

Let’s Talk

You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.