Whether you’re already a homeowner or you’re looking to become one, the recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that’s raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.
One of the questions that’s on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters aren’t calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the latest data, there’s a case to be made that the biggest portion of month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already be behind us – and even those numbers weren’t significant declines on the national level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values hit bottom?
Let’s take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):
The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic. It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have yet to come out.
Let’s focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are the change in home values over the last four months that have been published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.
While that doesn’t guarantee home price depreciation has hit bottom, it confirms prices aren’t in a free fall, and it may be an early signal that the worst is already behind us. As the numbers for November and December are released, data will be able to further validate this national trend.
Home prices month-over-month have depreciated for the past four months on record, but there’s a strong case to be made that the worst may be behind us. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local market, let’s connect.
Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.
Nationally, home prices hit an all-time high in June 2024, and we estimate that prices may have bucked seasonal trends and climbed slightly higher in July.
In July, the average 30-year mortgage rate declined for the third month, falling to 6.78%, a 0.44% drop from the 2024 high reached in early May. The Fed is poised to s… Read more
Join Elevation Real Estate and JVM Lending as they make the case that now may be a good time to buy rather than continue renting. An event that promises to be a game-c… Read more
The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as qu… Read more
One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve… Read more
The housing market is in a transition in the second half of 2024. Here are four reasons why this may be a buyers chance to jump back into the market.
Even if you didn't own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with … Read more
Setting the right price from the start is key. While it might be tempting to try shooting high with your price, that can slow down the selling process big time.
One of the best pieces of news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to come down a bit.
You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.