East Bay Market Update - June 2026

The Big Story

Quick Take:

Median home sale prices surged past last year's levels in May, as the spring selling season continues to build momentum.
Inventory levels have climbed back to where they were at this time last year, giving buyers more options heading into the summer.
Existing home sales posted their strongest year-over-year gain in quite some time, signaling that buyers are finally coming off the sidelines.

Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.

*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

The spring rally is in full swing

The spring selling season has delivered exactly the kind of price action that sellers were hoping for. The median home sold for $429,300 in May, representing a 2.83% month-over-month increase and a 1.32% year-over-year gain. This marks the fourth consecutive month of month-over-month price increases since the market bottomed out at $395,000 in January, and it's the highest median sale price we've seen since last summer. Helping fuel this rally is the fact that mortgage rates have come back down a bit after their April spike, settling at 6.37% in May, which is 5.77% lower than the 6.76% we were seeing at this time last year. That said, the median monthly P&I payment came in at $2,201, which is only 2.57% lower than the $2,259 the median homeowner was paying a year ago. The affordability gap is narrowing, as rising prices are beginning to eat into the savings that lower rates have provided. It'll be worth keeping a close eye on this dynamic as we move deeper into the summer months.

Inventory is back to last year's levels just in time for the summer rush

After spending much of the winter and early spring playing catch-up, inventory levels have finally returned to where they were at this time last year. In May, there were 1,550,000 homes available for sale, representing a 0.65% year-over-year increase and a 3.33% month-over-month gain. While the year-over-year increase is modest, it's encouraging to see inventory keeping pace with last year's levels, especially considering how tight supply has been for the past several years. On the new listings front, 474,976 new listings hit the market in May, representing a 2.12% year-over-year increase, though this was a slight 0.45% decline from April's pace. This tells us that sellers are still actively listing their homes, but the initial spring rush may be tapering off just a bit. If inventory continues to build through June and July, buyers heading into the summer could find themselves with the most options they've had in years.

Buyers are back, and they're buying

Perhaps the most encouraging data point this month is the significant uptick in existing home sales. In May, 4,170,000 homes changed hands, representing a 3.22% increase on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. This is a meaningful shift from the sluggish sales figures we've been tracking over the past several months, and it suggests that the combination of lower mortgage rates and growing inventory is finally pulling buyers off the sidelines. It's also worth noting that this is the highest existing home sales figure we've seen since December, when the market saw its seasonal year-end push. If this momentum carries through the summer, we could be looking at one of the more active selling seasons we've seen in recent years. Of course, the big wildcard here is mortgage rates. If rates continue to decline, it could add even more fuel to the fire. But if they tick back up, as they did in April, it could pump the brakes on what has been a very promising start to the summer.

The tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continues

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

Right now, the national market finds itself in an interesting position. Inventory is growing, but existing home sales are growing right along with it, which means the months of supply on the market hasn't shifted dramatically in either direction. The fact that both supply and demand are ticking up simultaneously tells us that we're in a relatively balanced market at the national level. However, the direction of mortgage rates over the next couple of months will likely determine which way the scale tips. If rates continue their downward trajectory, demand could outpace supply, pushing us back toward a seller's market. On the other hand, if rates climb again, inventory could pile up, giving buyers the upper hand. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Prices are on the rise across the board, with single-family homes and condos both posting year-over-year gains for the first time in over a year.
Inventory remains exceptionally tight, with single-family home supply down more than 27% compared to last year.
Single-family homes are selling faster than last year, while condos continue to take a bit longer to move.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Prices surge as the spring market hits its stride

May brought some exciting news for East Bay homeowners, as prices rose across the board for the first time in well over a year. In Alameda County, the median single-family home sold for $1,390,000, representing a 2.96% increase on a year-over-year basis. Contra Costa County saw similar gains, with the median single-family home selling for $922,500, up 2.50% compared to last year. Perhaps even more notable is the turnaround we're seeing in the condo market. Alameda County condos posted a 0.43% year-over-year gain, with the median condo selling for $587,500. While this is a modest increase, it marks the first positive year-over-year movement we've seen in the Alameda County condo market in quite some time. Contra Costa County condos fared even better, rising 6.92% to a median sale price of $510,000.

Inventory crunch intensifies as buyers compete for limited options

The inventory shortage that has defined the East Bay market continues to intensify. Single-family home inventory stood at just 2,621 units in May, representing a staggering 27.38% decline on a year-over-year basis. This is remarkable considering we're in the heart of the spring selling season, which is typically the busiest time of year for new listings. The condo market saw a similar trend, with inventory down 12.59% year-over-year to 965 units. This persistent lack of supply is the primary driver behind the price appreciation we're seeing, as buyers compete aggressively for a limited number of homes.

Single-family homes are moving even faster than last year

The tight inventory environment is pushing single-family homes to sell even faster than they did a year ago. The average single-family home in both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties sold in just 13 days, representing a 7.14% improvement on a year-over-year basis in both counties. The condo market is moving a bit more slowly, with the average condo in Alameda County spending 28 days on the market and Contra Costa County condos spending 26 days. While these figures represent year-over-year increases of 16.67% and 4.00% respectively, condos are still selling at a reasonable pace given the broader market conditions.

Single-family homes remain a strong seller's market while condos favor buyers

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

The single-family home market remains firmly in seller's market territory, with just 1.9 months of inventory in Alameda County and 2.3 months in Contra Costa County. These figures represent year-over-year declines of 26.92% and 25.81%, respectively, indicating that competition among buyers shows no signs of letting up. The condo market continues to favor buyers, with Alameda County ending May with 4.4 months of inventory and Contra Costa County with 4.2 months. However, it's worth noting that these figures have come down slightly from last month, suggesting that the condo market may be beginning to tighten as well.

Local Lowdown Data