Interest rates have been in a downward cycle for quite some time, as the Federal Reserve has been lowering the federal funds rate. As you might expect, that means that the median monthly P&I payment has declined by quite a bit too. Right now, the median homeowner is paying $2,023 per month to service the P&I on their mortgage, which is down 5.02% from $2,130, just a year ago. This is great for the average American, as it means they have more money in their pocket to spend, or potentially save for their next move! In the beginning of December, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.15%, and has continued to fall since!

Fortunately for home buyers and sellers, the lending markets are beginning to believe that interest rates will remain low in the near and medium term future. This has led interest rates to continue inching down almost every month. In the past few weeks, we’ve seen the average 30-year mortgage rate at the lowest level it’s been in the past three years, which is tremendous news for the housing market. Unfortunately though, it doesn’t seem like the Fed will lower rates during the next FOMC meeting, as CME FedWatch currently has the probability of a March rate cut at just 7.9% at the time this was written. However, if you extend your time horizon out a bit, it does seem like there’s a good chance we see a rate cut or two throughout the rest of the year.

Although interest rates are coming down, and housing is becoming more affordable, we’re not seeing much change in terms of inventories, new listings, or existing home sales. Existing home sales and inventories are up 1.40% and 3.51% on a year-over-year basis, respectively. At the same time, new home listings are up just 0.68% on a year-over-year basis. This suggests that there are still a lot of buyers waiting on the sidelines for rates to come down even more before they pounce on their next home. It’ll be worth paying attention to all of the metrics we track as we move through the seasonally slow winter and into the spring and summer when the market really heats up. If we see a rate cut or two prior to the first heat wave of the year, we could see some bidding wars throughout the summer!

As we mentioned above, we are likely to see rates stay where they are at least in the next FOMC meeting or two. While there was some speculation that the next appointed Fed Chair would create a Fed that is less autonomous in it’s decisions, the market does not believe that future Chairman Warsh will be the wildcard that many were anticipating. This can largely be supported by the fact that we’ve seen precious metals sell off precipitously recently, as these are typically considered a hedge when the dollar is less-than-stable. However, only time will tell, which means it’ll be more important than ever to pay attention to Fed commentary!

It’s important to note though, that all of this is what we’re seeing at a national level. As we all know, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what’s going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!

The new year has started on a positive note for the single-family home market in the East Bay. In January, the median single-family home in Alameda County sold for $1,150,000, representing a 2.86% increase on a year-over-year basis. Contra Costa County saw similar gains, with the median single-family home selling for $800,000, a 2.04% year-over-year increase. This marks a welcome turnaround after several months of flat or declining prices. The condo market, however, continues to struggle. Alameda County condos declined by 6.36% year-over-year, with the median condo selling for $515,000. Contra Costa County condos fared even worse, dropping 14.39% to a median sale price of $455,000. The divergence between single-family homes and condos remains one of the defining features of the East Bay market.

As we kicked off the new year, inventory levels remained considerably lower than they were at this time last year. Single-family home inventory stood at just 1,639 units, representing an 18.58% decline on a year-over-year basis. The condo market saw an even steeper drop, with inventory falling 20.03% year-over-year to just 627 units. This persistent lack of inventory continues to put upward pressure on single-family home prices while making it difficult for buyers to find suitable options. We typically see inventory begin to build throughout the spring months, so it will be interesting to see whether the market can absorb fresh listings as they come to market.

The single-family home market continues to move at a brisk pace in Alameda County, where the average listing sold in just 19 days, unchanged from last year. However, Contra Costa County single-family homes are taking a bit longer to sell, with the average listing spending 30 days on the market, a 15.38% increase compared to last year. The condo market is a different story altogether. The average condo in Alameda County is spending 51 days on the market, while condos in Contra Costa County are sitting for an average of 52 days. The Contra Costa condo market saw a particularly dramatic increase, with days on market jumping 67.74% year-over-year. This extended time on market reflects the ongoing challenges in the condo segment, where buyers seem to have plenty of leverage.

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

The East Bay kicked off 2026 firmly in seller's market territory across the board. The single-family home market remains exceptionally tight, with just 1.1 months of inventory in Alameda County and 1.5 months in Contra Costa County. This represents year-over-year declines of 21.43% and 16.67%, respectively, signaling that buyers looking for single-family homes will face stiff competition. Even the condo market, which has struggled with pricing throughout 2025, has tightened considerably. Alameda County ended January with 2.7 months of condo inventory, while Contra Costa County had 2.9 months. Both figures put the condo market into seller's market territory as well, which could help stabilize prices in the months ahead.