In the not-so-distant past, housing price growth outstripped inflation growth by a wide margin. However, now that the housing market has normalized, we’re seeing more modest levels of appreciation, with the median home sale price increasing by just 1.97% on a year-over-year basis in June. This represents great news for home buyers, and the housing market as a whole, considering that the June CPI reading came in at 2.7%. It’ll be worth paying attention to this over the course of the next few months, especially considering that many analysts are expecting a rate cut from the Fed in the September FOMC meeting.

The trend of growing inventories has continued this month, with 15.91% more inventory on the market in June on a year-over-year basis. This growth in inventories can be attributed to the fact that the new homes are hitting the market at a much faster rate than new buyers are entering the market. In June, we saw a 0.77% increase in the number of existing homes sold on a year-over-year basis, while at the same time, we saw a 7.25% increase in the number of new listings hitting the market. Although there are still some buyers entering into the market every month, there is still a rather large contingent of people holding out until rates come back down.

This past month, we saw the Fed hold rates steady once again, as they brace for the consequences of the newly minted tariff policies that went into effect in early August. Although inflation data has led many to believe that we need to see substantial rate cuts in the not-so-distant future, Fed officials are incredibly concerned about the potential impacts of the freshly enacted tariff policy. Additionally, the Fed has a dual mandate; it’s responsible for controlling inflation and promoting maximum employment. At this point in time, we’re seeing relatively low inflation, and a very low unemployment rate, so Fed officials seemingly aren’t in a hurry to cut the federal funds rate.

It probably isn’t much of a surprise that inventories are building and median sale prices have remained relatively stagnant, given the lack of movement in rates. Many believe that there is a very large contingent of people who simply aren’t willing to pay a comparatively very high interest rate to purchase a home, especially given that many have locked into rates in the 2-4% range on existing homes. The consistently high mortgage rates that we’ve seen have led people to stay in their homes for longer, resulting in more sellers on the market than buyers. However, we might see some movement if we see some positive commentary from the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meeting.

However, it’s important to remember that this is what we’re seeing at a national level. Oftentimes, what we see in California can be quite a bit different than the nation as a whole. We’ve done a deep dive into California markets in the local lowdown section below.

In July, we saw median sale prices in the East Bay fall on a year-over-year basis for the sixth month in a row! Single-family home median sale prices decreased by 2.08% and 6.56% on a year-over-year basis in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively. We also saw median sale prices for condos decrease by 11.54% in Contra Costa County and 16.00% in Alameda County. However, it is worth noting that although we’ve seen year-over-year declines in median sale prices throughout the East Bay, we are not seeing a downward acceleration, meaning that property values are not in freefall. Instead, they’re maintaining a steady price point that’s several percentage points lower than what homes were selling for last year.

The cause of the decrease in median sale prices that we’ve seen over the past six months is more than likely the recent spike in inventory, combined with a decrease in the number of listings being sold. In July, the single-family home market saw a 6.17% decrease in the number of sold listings and a 15.68% increase in the number of active listings on the market on a year-over-year basis. Likewise, the condo market saw a 24.82% decrease in the number of sold listings and a 9.48% increase in the number of active listings. It’s also worth noting that there were 10.58% fewer new condo listings on a year-over-year basis as well!

Last month, we saw a pretty substantial increase in the number of days that listings are spending on the market. Historically, inventory has moved very quickly in the East Bay, but as of July, the average single-family home is spending 16 days on the market in Alameda County and 18 days on the market in Contra Costa County, compared to homes spending 13 days on the market in both counties in July 2024. Condos are spending even more time on the market, with the average Alameda County condo spending 31 days on the market and the average Contra Costa County condo spending 35 days on the market, compared to 19 and 24 days on the market in July of 2024.

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyer’s markets.

Despite rising inventories and falling prices, the single-family home market within the East Bay remains a seller's market, with 2.1 and 2.7 months of supply on the market in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively. On the flip side, the condo market remains a buyer's market, with Alameda and Contra Costa Counties having 4.5 and 4.2 months' worth of condo supply on the market.